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Title: Dartboard Probability
Description:
In this lesson students will find probability of events presented in a geometric context.
This lesson plan was created by exemplary Alabama Math Teachers through the AMSTI project.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5]
Subject: Mathematics (9  12)
Title: Dartboard Probability
Description: In this lesson students will find probability of events presented in a geometric context.
This lesson plan was created by exemplary Alabama Math Teachers through the AMSTI project.
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Title: Touchdown Decisions
Description:
In this Science Update, from Science NetLinks, you'll hear about how, on fourth downs, professional football coaches tend to go for field goals or punts, even when their actual odds of winning the game would be higher if they went for touchdowns. According to economist David Romer, a similar cautiousness may keep businesses from maximizing their profits. Science Updates are audio interviews with scientists and are accompanied by a set of questions as well as links to related Science NetLinks lessons and other related resources.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5]
Subject: Mathematics, Social Studies Title: Touchdown Decisions
Description: In this Science Update, from Science NetLinks, you'll hear about how, on fourth downs, professional football coaches tend to go for field goals or punts, even when their actual odds of winning the game would be higher if they went for touchdowns. According to economist David Romer, a similar cautiousness may keep businesses from maximizing their profits. Science Updates are audio interviews with scientists and are accompanied by a set of questions as well as links to related Science NetLinks lessons and other related resources. Thinkfinity Partner: Science NetLinks Grade Span: 6,7,8,9,10,11,12
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Title: Boxing Up
Description:
In this lesson, from Illuminations, students explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities. They use an interactive box model that allows them to simulate standard probability experiments such as flipping a coin or rolling a die.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 41: Construct and interpret twoway frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the twoway table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. [SCP4] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Boxing Up
Description: In this lesson, from Illuminations, students explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities. They use an interactive box model that allows them to simulate standard probability experiments such as flipping a coin or rolling a die. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 6,7,8
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Title: Stick or Switch?
Description:
This lesson, from Illuminations, presents a version of a classic gameshow scenario. You pick one of three doors in hopes of winning the prize. The host opens one of the two remaining doors, which reveals no prize, and then asks if you wish to stick or switch. Which choice gives you the best chance to win? Students explore different approaches to this problem including guesses, experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 41: Construct and interpret twoway frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the twoway table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. [SCP4] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] PRE (912) 48: Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. [SIC5] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] DM1 (912) 12: Use combinatorial reasoning and counting techniques to solve applicationbased problems. (Alabama) [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Stick or Switch?
Description: This lesson, from Illuminations, presents a version of a classic gameshow scenario. You pick one of three doors in hopes of winning the prize. The host opens one of the two remaining doors, which reveals no prize, and then asks if you wish to stick or switch. Which choice gives you the best chance to win? Students explore different approaches to this problem including guesses, experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical models. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 6,7,8,9,10,11,12
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Title: Sticks and Stones
Description:
In this Illuminations lesson, students play Sticks and Stones, a game based on the Apache game Throw Sticks, which was played at multination celebrations. Students collect data, investigate the likelihood of various moves, and use basic ideas of expected value to determine the average number of turns needed to win a game.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (3) 18: Draw a scaled picture graph and a scaled bar graph to represent a data set with several categories. Solve one and twostep "how many more" and "how many less" problems using information presented in scaled bar graphs. [3MD3] [MA2013] (5) 19: Make a line plot to display a data set of measurements in fractions of a unit (^{1}/_{2}, ^{1}/_{4}, ^{1}/_{8}).
Use operations on fractions for this grade to solve problems involving information presented in line plots. [5MD2] [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 26: Understand that a set of data collected to answer a statistical question has a distribution which can be described by its center, spread, and overall shape. [6SP2] [MA2013] (6) 27: Recognize that a measure of center for a numerical data set summarizes all of its values with a single number, while a measure of variation describes how its values vary with a single number. [6SP3] [MA2013] (6) 28: Display numerical data in plots on a number line, including dot plots, histograms, and box plots. [6SP4] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 42: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. [SID2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 43: Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets, accounting for possible effects of extreme data points (outliers). [SID3] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Sticks and Stones
Description: In this Illuminations lesson, students play Sticks and Stones, a game based on the Apache game Throw Sticks, which was played at multination celebrations. Students collect data, investigate the likelihood of various moves, and use basic ideas of expected value to determine the average number of turns needed to win a game. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 3,4,5,6,7,8
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Title: Touchdown Decisions
Description:
In this Science Update, from Science NetLinks, you'll hear about how, on fourth downs, professional football coaches tend to go for field goals or punts, even when their actual odds of winning the game would be higher if they went for touchdowns. According to economist David Romer, a similar cautiousness may keep businesses from maximizing their profits. Science Updates are audio interviews with scientists and are accompanied by a set of questions as well as links to related Science NetLinks lessons and other related resources.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5]
Subject: Mathematics, Social Studies Title: Touchdown Decisions
Description: In this Science Update, from Science NetLinks, you'll hear about how, on fourth downs, professional football coaches tend to go for field goals or punts, even when their actual odds of winning the game would be higher if they went for touchdowns. According to economist David Romer, a similar cautiousness may keep businesses from maximizing their profits. Science Updates are audio interviews with scientists and are accompanied by a set of questions as well as links to related Science NetLinks lessons and other related resources. Thinkfinity Partner: Science NetLinks Grade Span: 6,7,8,9,10,11,12
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Title: Stick or Switch?
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This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 38: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 42: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] PRE (912) 54: (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. [SMD5]
Stick or Switch?
http://illuminations...
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
Teacher Tools
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Title: Stick or Switch?
Description:
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 38: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 42: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] PRE (912) 54: (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. [SMD5]
Stick or Switch?
http://illuminations...
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.

