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Title: Dice Roll Project
Description:
This project is a fun way for students to observe the integration of a probability lesson with spreadsheet software. Students will record 36 rolls of a pair of dice. After they record their data, students will manually calculate the mean, median, mode and range. Students will then observe how quickly a computer can do those same calculations and many more things with that same data. Students will also compare experimental outcomes to the theoretical outcome.
Standard(s): [TC2] CA2 (912) 5: Utilize advanced features of spreadsheet software, including creating charts and graphs,
sorting and filtering data, creating formulas, and applying functions. [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 20: Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. [7SP4] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 42: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. [SID2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] DM1 (912) 12: Use combinatorial reasoning and counting techniques to solve applicationbased problems. (Alabama) [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6]
Subject: Mathematics (7  12), or Technology Education (9  12)
Title: Dice Roll Project
Description: This project is a fun way for students to observe the integration of a probability lesson with spreadsheet software. Students will record 36 rolls of a pair of dice. After they record their data, students will manually calculate the mean, median, mode and range. Students will then observe how quickly a computer can do those same calculations and many more things with that same data. Students will also compare experimental outcomes to the theoretical outcome.
Thinkfinity Lesson Plans
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Title: Make a Conjecture
Description:
In this lesson, one of a multipart unit from Illuminations, students explore rates of change and accumulation in context. They are asked to think about the mathematics involved in determining the amount of blood being pumped by a heart.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL1 (912) 4: Use units as a way to understand problems and to guide the solution of multistep problems; choose and interpret units consistently in formulas; choose and interpret the scale and the origin in graphs and data displays. [NQ1] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 5: Define appropriate quantities for the purpose of descriptive modeling. [NQ2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 6: Choose a level of accuracy appropriate to limitations on measurement when reporting quantities. [NQ3] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 12: Create equations and inequalities in one variable, and use them to solve problems. Include equations arising from linear and quadratic functions, and simple rational and exponential functions. [ACED1] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 13: Create equations in two or more variables to represent relationships between quantities; graph equations on coordinate axes with labels and scales. [ACED2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 14: Represent constraints by equations or inequalities, and by systems of equations and/or inequalities and interpret solutions as viable or nonviable options in a modeling context. [ACED3] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 28: For a function that models a relationship between two quantities, interpret key features of graphs and tables in terms of the quantities, and sketch graphs showing key features given a verbal description of the relationship. Key features include intercepts; intervals where the function is increasing, decreasing, positive, or negative; relative maximums and minimums; symmetries; end behavior; and periodicity.* [FIF4] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 29: Relate the domain of a function to its graph and, where applicable, to the quantitative relationship it describes.* [FIF5] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 30: Calculate and interpret the average rate of change of a function (presented symbolically or as a table) over a specified interval. Estimate the rate of change from a graph.* [FIF6] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 31: Graph functions expressed symbolically and show key features of the graph, by hand in simple cases and using technology for more complicated cases.* [FIF7] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 32: Write a function defined by an expression in different but equivalent forms to reveal and explain different properties of the function. [FIF8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 34: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 37: Distinguish between situations that can be modeled with linear functions and with exponential functions. [FLE1] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 38: Construct linear and exponential functions, including arithmetic and geometric sequences, given a graph, a description of a relationship, or two inputoutput pairs (include reading these from a table). [FLE2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 39: Observe, using graphs and tables, that a quantity increasing exponentially eventually exceeds a quantity increasing linearly, quadratically, or (more generally) as a polynomial function. [FLE3] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 40: Interpret the parameters in a linear or exponential function in terms of a context. [FLE5] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 41: Represent data with plots on the real number line (dot plots, histograms, and box plots). [SID1] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 42: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. [SID2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 45: Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the variables are related. [SID6] [MA2013] ALC (912) 3: Use formulas or equations of functions to calculate outcomes of exponential growth or decay. (Alabama) [MA2013] ALC (912) 5: Determine approximate rates of change of nonlinear relationships from graphical and numerical data. (Alabama) [MA2013] ALC (912) 12: Create a model of a set of data by estimating the equation of a curve of best fit from tables of values or scatter plots. (Alabama) [MA2013] AL2 (912) 12: Interpret expressions that represent a quantity in terms of its context.* [ASSE1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 20: Create equations and inequalities in one variable and use them to solve problems. Include equations arising from linear and quadratic functions, and simple rational and exponential functions. [ACED1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 22: Represent constraints by equations or inequalities, and by systems of equations and/or inequalities, and interpret solutions as viable or nonviable options in a modeling context. [ACED3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 29: Relate the domain of a function to its graph and, where applicable, to the quantitative relationship it describes.* [FIF5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 30: Graph functions expressed symbolically, and show key features of the graph, by hand in simple cases and using technology for more complicated cases.* [FIF7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 38: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 12: Interpret expressions that represent a quantity in terms of its context.* [ASSE1] [MA2013] ALT (912) 20: Create equations and inequalities in one variable and use them to solve problems. Include equations arising from linear and quadratic functions, and simple rational and exponential functions. [ACED1] [MA2013] ALT (912) 22: Represent constraints by equations or inequalities, and by systems of equations and/or inequalities, and interpret solutions as viable or nonviable options in a modeling context. [ACED3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 16: For a function that models a relationship between two quantities, interpret key features of graphs and tables in terms of the quantities, and sketch graphs showing key features given a verbal description of the relationship. (Key features include intercepts; intervals where the function is increasing, decreasing, positive, or negative; relative maximums and minimums; symmetries; end behavior; and periodicity. Determine odd, even, neither.)* [FIF4] (Alabama) [MA2013] ALT (912) 29: Relate the domain of a function to its graph and, where applicable, to the quantitative relationship it describes.* [FIF5] [MA2013] PRE (912) 17: Calculate and interpret the average rate of change of a function (presented symbolically or as a table) over a specified interval. Estimate the rate of change from a graph.* [FIF6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 30: Graph functions expressed symbolically, and show key features of the graph, by hand in simple cases and using technology for more complicated cases.* [FIF7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] ALT (912) 37: Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution and to estimate population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for which such a procedure is not appropriate. Use calculators, spreadsheets, and tables to estimate areas under the normal curve. [SID4] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 49: Evaluate reports based on data. [SIC6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 42: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 35: Write arithmetic and geometric sequences both recursively and with an explicit formula, use them to model situations, and translate between the two forms.* [FBF2]
Subject: Health,Mathematics Title: Make a Conjecture
Description: In this lesson, one of a multipart unit from Illuminations, students explore rates of change and accumulation in context. They are asked to think about the mathematics involved in determining the amount of blood being pumped by a heart. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 9,10,11,12
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Title: Boxing Up
Description:
In this lesson, from Illuminations, students explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities. They use an interactive box model that allows them to simulate standard probability experiments such as flipping a coin or rolling a die.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 41: Construct and interpret twoway frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the twoway table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. [SCP4] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Boxing Up
Description: In this lesson, from Illuminations, students explore the relationship between theoretical and experimental probabilities. They use an interactive box model that allows them to simulate standard probability experiments such as flipping a coin or rolling a die. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 6,7,8
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Title: Birthday Paradox
Description:
This Illuminations lesson demonstrates the birthday paradox, using it as a springboard into a unit on probability. Students use the TI83 graphing calculator to run a Monte Carlo simulation with the birthday paradox and engage in a graphical analysis of the birthdayproblem function.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 26: Understand that a set of data collected to answer a statistical question has a distribution which can be described by its center, spread, and overall shape. [6SP2] [MA2013] (6) 27: Recognize that a measure of center for a numerical data set summarizes all of its values with a single number, while a measure of variation describes how its values vary with a single number. [6SP3] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] DM1 (912) 12: Use combinatorial reasoning and counting techniques to solve applicationbased problems. (Alabama) [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 51: (+) Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability distribution. [SMD2]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Birthday Paradox
Description: This Illuminations lesson demonstrates the birthday paradox, using it as a springboard into a unit on probability. Students use the TI83 graphing calculator to run a Monte Carlo simulation with the birthday paradox and engage in a graphical analysis of the birthdayproblem function. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 6,7,8,9,10,11,12
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Title: Explorations with Chance
Description:
In this lesson, from Illuminations, students analyze the fairness of certain games by examining the probabilities of the outcomes. The explorations provide opportunities for the learning phases of predicting results, playing the games, and calculating probability ratios.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] PRE (912) 48: Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. [SIC5] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Explorations with Chance
Description: In this lesson, from Illuminations, students analyze the fairness of certain games by examining the probabilities of the outcomes. The explorations provide opportunities for the learning phases of predicting results, playing the games, and calculating probability ratios. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 9,10,11,12
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Title: Stick or Switch?
Description:
This lesson, from Illuminations, presents a version of a classic gameshow scenario. You pick one of three doors in hopes of winning the prize. The host opens one of the two remaining doors, which reveals no prize, and then asks if you wish to stick or switch. Which choice gives you the best chance to win? Students explore different approaches to this problem including guesses, experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 41: Construct and interpret twoway frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the twoway table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. [SCP4] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] PRE (912) 48: Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. [SIC5] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] DM1 (912) 12: Use combinatorial reasoning and counting techniques to solve applicationbased problems. (Alabama) [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Stick or Switch?
Description: This lesson, from Illuminations, presents a version of a classic gameshow scenario. You pick one of three doors in hopes of winning the prize. The host opens one of the two remaining doors, which reveals no prize, and then asks if you wish to stick or switch. Which choice gives you the best chance to win? Students explore different approaches to this problem including guesses, experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical models. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 6,7,8,9,10,11,12
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Title: Sticks and Stones Demo
Description:
This student interactive, from an Illuminations lesson, allows students to generate random throws for the game '' Sticks and Stones.'' In the game, three sticks are tossed and a player moves his or her marker according to how the sticks land.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 41: Construct and interpret twoway frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the twoway table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. [SCP4] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] DM1 (912) 12: Use combinatorial reasoning and counting techniques to solve applicationbased problems. (Alabama) [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Sticks and Stones Demo
Description: This student interactive, from an Illuminations lesson, allows students to generate random throws for the game '' Sticks and Stones.'' In the game, three sticks are tossed and a player moves his or her marker according to how the sticks land. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 3,4,5,6,7,8
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Title: Sticks and Stones
Description:
In this Illuminations lesson, students play Sticks and Stones, a game based on the Apache game Throw Sticks, which was played at multination celebrations. Students collect data, investigate the likelihood of various moves, and use basic ideas of expected value to determine the average number of turns needed to win a game.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (3) 18: Draw a scaled picture graph and a scaled bar graph to represent a data set with several categories. Solve one and twostep "how many more" and "how many less" problems using information presented in scaled bar graphs. [3MD3] [MA2013] (5) 19: Make a line plot to display a data set of measurements in fractions of a unit (^{1}/_{2}, ^{1}/_{4}, ^{1}/_{8}).
Use operations on fractions for this grade to solve problems involving information presented in line plots. [5MD2] [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 26: Understand that a set of data collected to answer a statistical question has a distribution which can be described by its center, spread, and overall shape. [6SP2] [MA2013] (6) 27: Recognize that a measure of center for a numerical data set summarizes all of its values with a single number, while a measure of variation describes how its values vary with a single number. [6SP3] [MA2013] (6) 28: Display numerical data in plots on a number line, including dot plots, histograms, and box plots. [6SP4] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] (7) 24: Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. [7SP8] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 42: Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. [SID2] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 43: Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets, accounting for possible effects of extreme data points (outliers). [SID3] [MA2013] AL1 (912) 47: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. [SCP2] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 40: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. [SCP3] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 43: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 44: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP7] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 45: (+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(BA) = P(B)P(AB), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. [SCP8] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 46: (+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems. [SCP9] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] PRE (912) 47: Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. [SIC4] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 50: (+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions. [SMD1]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Sticks and Stones
Description: In this Illuminations lesson, students play Sticks and Stones, a game based on the Apache game Throw Sticks, which was played at multination celebrations. Students collect data, investigate the likelihood of various moves, and use basic ideas of expected value to determine the average number of turns needed to win a game. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: 3,4,5,6,7,8
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Title: Stick or Switch?
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This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 38: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 42: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] PRE (912) 54: (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. [SMD5]
Stick or Switch?
http://illuminations...
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
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Title: Stick or Switch?
Description:
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
Standard(s): [MA2013] AL2 (912) 42: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. [SCP5] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 38: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] ALT (912) 42: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). [SMD7] [MA2013] PRE (912) 54: (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. [SMD5]
Stick or Switch?
http://illuminations...
This lesson plan presents a classic gameshow scenario. A student picks one of three doors in the hopes of winning the prize. The host, who knows the door behind which the prize is hidden, opens one of the two remaining doors. When no prize is revealed, the host asks if the student wishes to "stick or switch." Which choice gives you the best chance to win? The approach in this activity runs from guesses to experiments to computer simulations to theoretical models.
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Title: Adjustable Spinner
Description:
This student interactive, from Illuminations, allows students to create their own spinners and examine the outcomes given a specified number of spins. Students learn that experimental probabilities differ according to the characteristics of the model.
Standard(s): [MA2013] (6) 25: Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. [6SP1] [MA2013] (6) 29: Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by: [6SP5] [MA2013] (7) 17: Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences. [7SP1] [MA2013] (7) 18: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. [7SP2] [MA2013] (7) 21: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ^{1}/_{2} indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. [7SP5] [MA2013] (7) 22: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. [7SP6] [MA2013] (7) 23: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy. [7SP7] [MA2013] GEO (912) 42: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 33: Write a function that describes a relationship between two quantities.* [FBF1] [MA2013] AL2 (912) 37: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6] [MA2013] PRE (912) 44: Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. [SIC1] [MA2013] PRE (912) 45: Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given datagenerating process, e.g., using simulation. [SIC2] [MA2013] PRE (912) 46: Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. [SIC3] [MA2013] ALT (912) 41: (+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). [SMD6]
Subject: Mathematics Title: Adjustable Spinner
Description: This student interactive, from Illuminations, allows students to create their own spinners and examine the outcomes given a specified number of spins. Students learn that experimental probabilities differ according to the characteristics of the model. Thinkfinity Partner: Illuminations Grade Span: K,PreK,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

